Bulls, Bears, and Long-Term Benefits of Stock Investing

Bulls, Bears and Ballots: When Looking At Politics And Markets, Think Long Term

With people voting in at least 76 countries in 2024, it looks to be the biggest election year in history, affecting 4.4 billion people, or 60% of the global population. (1) Attention will especially be focused on the United States, where the vote for president is expected to again be close. The anticipation building up to elections often brings with it questions about how financial markets will respond. But the outcome of an election is only one of many inputs that can impact stocks and bonds.

How Do Presidential Elections Affect the Market?

During a presidential election year, it is natural for investors to seek a connection between who wins the White House and which way stocks will go. Some may even wonder whether they should get out of the stock market altogether before the ballots are counted. But a look at history may offer some reassurance. Remember, shareholders are investing in companies, not politicians, and stocks have not shown much of a party preference.
Bull Bears Ballots
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

What About Which Party Controls Congress?

Control of Congress has not been a reliable market gauge either. Nearly a century of US stock market data suggests that making investment decisions based on which party controls the House or the Senate is unlikely to lead to better outcomes.
Bulls Bears Ballots
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Should I Brace for Rocky Markets During an Election Month?

You may wonder: What about returns during an election month, when uncertainty may be peaking? Data shows returns in election months have not tended to be that different from returns in any other month. When looking at a broad-market US index going back to 1926, the results do not reflect any consistent pattern.
Monthly Returns for the S&P 500, 1926–2023
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

What Is An Investor To Do?

While it may be natural to wonder whether you should make an investment decision based on how you think elections might unfold, data suggests such moves are unlikely to result in better returns. On the contrary, these moves may lead to costly mistakes, like getting out of stocks based on a hunch and missing rewarding returns. There is a stronger case for investors to look past elections and maintain a steady approach to markets. In other words, make a long-term plan and stick to it. As Dimensional Founder and Chairman David Booth has said, “Vote with your ballot, not your life savings.” After all, the market is not a reflection of who gets elected president but of the efforts of companies to solve problems and provide goods and services. In the long run, innovation succeeds, no matter what politicians do.

This post was written and first distributed Dimensional Fund Advisors.

FOOTNOTES

(1) Sources: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, World Bank. Population figures for 2024 are based on most recently reported World Bank figures, as of January 2024.

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