Talking Volatility: Magnitude vs. Percentage
Unfortunately, as human beings, we are prone to behavioral tendencies and mental shortcuts that do not always work in our favor.
It’s hard to scan the financial headlines these days and not spot at least one call to action related to Bitcoin’s latest moves. Has all the attention given you cryptocurrency fever, or are you at least wondering what it’s all about? Before you start loading up on bitcoin or any other form of cryptocurrency, let’s take a closer look at what you may be getting yourself into, in three parts:
Our quick take? Cryptocurrency is an interesting development with a number of promising possibilities. Human ingenuity is always a marvel to behold. But like any relatively new, highly volatile pursuit, it entails considerable risk.
If you’d like to try earning and spending cryptocurrency, be sure you’re familiar with the nature of the beast. If you’re thinking of trading in it for fun or profit, we advise against putting in any more than you could afford to lose entirely. In our estimation, cryptocurrency remains more of a speculative venture than a disciplined investment.
With that, let’s proceed!
Cryptocurrency was introduced in 2009 by a pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. Nakamoto described a new kind of money, or currency, which was meant to exist in a secure, stable, and limited supply strengthened by electronic security, or encryption. Pair “encryption” with “currency,” and you’ve got cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin became the first cryptocurrency, and is still the most familiar kind. (1) According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin had a market cap of nearly $600 billion as of January 22, 2021, with its closest competitor Ethereum at $140 billion. Market caps drop considerably after that, but there are plenty of others. As of September 30, 2020, a CFA Institute Cryptoassets Guide reported: “More than 6,000 different cryptoassets exist, and many new ones are created each month.”
Unlike a dollar bill, cryptocurrency only exists as computer code. You can’t touch it or feel it. You can’t flip it, heads or tails. But increasingly, holders are spending cryptocurrency in ways that emulate “regular” money (although limitations remain) – and potentially even adding to its uses. There’s also growing interest in trying to build or at least preserve wealth by trading in cryptocurrency, which some describe as being like “digital gold.”
In comparing cryptocurrency to regulated fiat currency – or most countries’ legal tender – there are at least two components to consider: limiting supply and maintaining spending power.
Using bitcoin to illustrate, a block is essentially a bitcoin transaction waiting to be settled. Think of it as being like a written, but uncashed check; it’s not real money until the transaction is verified and added to a permanent ledger.
Except there is no bank to complete the transaction. Instead, bitcoin “miners” compete against one another for the role. Each block is secured with a complex mathematical equation. The first miner to solve the equation gets to add the new block to a blockchain. The winning miner is then rewarded handsomely for their effort. They are paid with bitcoin, which can currently be valued at tens of thousands of dollars for settling a single block. (Source)
The CFA Institute’s Cryptoassets Guide describes cryptocurrency security as follows:
“This is the real breakthrough of blockchains: creating timely, bad-actor-proof consensus across all copies of a decentralized and distributed database. … Today, more than 40,000 computers are independently verifying every single bitcoin transaction.”
In other words, blockchains create a strong, yet globally decentralized check-and-balance system. The competition among thousands of miners keeps everyone relatively honest, as any attempted “cheating” by cryptocurrency holders or miners should be promptly detected.
We’ve now provided a general introduction to cryptocurrency. In our next piece, we’ll cover some of the ways people are using it, along with some of the challenges involved in doing so. In the meantime, don’t hesitate to be in touch if we can answer additional questions.
(1) You may notice, we sometimes capitalize Bitcoin as a proper noun, and we sometimes leave it as lower case. General practice is to capitalize the entity, “Bitcoin,” but to use lower case for the coins themselves. Think of it like the difference between “the U.S. Dollar,” vs. “a dollar bill.”
This post was prepared and first distributed by Wendy J. Cook.
Shore Point Advisors is registered as an investment adviser with the State of New Jersey. Shore Point Advisors only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Content was prepared by a third-party provider. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors on the date of publication and are subject to change.
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